Colts vs. Titans odds, prediction, betting trends for NFL’s ‘Thursday Night Football’ game

When the Colts (5-3) travel to play the Titans (6-2) on “Thursday Night Football” (8:20 p.m. ET, Fox, NFL Network, Amazon Prime Video) to open Week 10 of NFL action in Nashville, first place in the AFC South will be on the line.

Indianapolis and Tennessee are playing each for the first time as division rivals in 2020. The Colts won in the AFC playoffs as a wild-card team in 2018, while the Titans reached the AFC title game as a wild-card team in 2019.

With reigning division champion Houston (2-6) struggled, whoever wins this matchup will be in a strong driver’s seat. The Titans are currently atop the division and can extend the lead. The Colts need a win to also help their playoff position, period vs. the Dolphins, Raiders and Browns.

Here’s everything to know about betting on Colts vs. Titans in Week 10, including updated odds, trends and our prediction for “Thursday Night Football.”

WEEK 10 NFL PICKS: Against the spread | Straight up

Colts vs. Titans odds for ‘Thursday Night Football’

The initial line had Tennessee as a two-point home favorite but has dropped to even before kickoff. The Colts’ defense is strong and the Titans’ defense is getting better, leading to a over/under below 50 points. This is a literal tossup game between two teams that are hard to read from week to week.

Colts vs. Titans all-time series

The Colts have doubled up the Titans, formerly known as the Houston Oilers, with a 34-17 lifetime mark in the rivalry. The teams have played twice a season since 2002, when the AFC South was born. The Titans won the previous meeting, 31-17 last Dec. 1. Before then the Colts had a three-game winning streak. The Titans also won both matchups in 2017, ending an 11-game winning streak fueled mostly by Andrew Luck.

Three trends to know

— 64 percent of spread bettors like the Titans at home, giving them slight favoritism despite the line becoming a pick ’em. 57 percent of moneyline bettors are with the Colts.

— 53 percent of bettors like the total to go over. The Colts have gone over in half of their games, four. The Titans have gone over in five of their eight games.

— The Colts are 4-4 against the spread this season. The Titans are 3-5 against the spread this season. The teams have gone 3-3 against each other against the spread over the past three seasons.

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Three things to watch

Derrick Henry vs. the Colts’ run defense

The Colts have allowed 83.6 yards rushing per game on average, good for the No. 3 run defense in the entire NFL, behind only the Bucs and the Saints. Henry struggled to get going against the Bears’ run defense last week. Henry was highly effective against the Colts last season when they finished as the No. 5 run defense. The Titans’ big hammer of a feature back needs to carry the load well with some rumbling gains to help his team win this week.

Philip Rivers vs. the Titans’ pass defense

The Titans have struggled stopping teams through the air, with the NFL’s No. 27 pass defense, allowing 275 yards per game. Their pass rush has been hit or mess and the secondary has been limited on speed and depth. This is an opportunity for Rivers, with wide receiver T.Y Hilton returning to lead a deep corps to attack downfield efficiently and confidently. The Colts may want to stick with the run against the No. 17 run defense, but they need to open things up a bit to beat the Titans. There needs to be trust in Rivers to gunsling a little, because counterpart Ryan Tannehill will go after more big play-action pass plays working off the success of Henry.

A.J. Brown vs. the Colts’ secondary

The Titans’ top wide receiver burned a very strong Bears pass defense with tough cornerbacks for 4 catches, 101 yards and a TD on nine targets from Tannehill. In two games against the Colts during his rookie season in 2019, Brown was contained to a combined 6 catches for 70 yards on nine targets. Brown needs to help Tannehill again cut through a tricky spot but using his speed, size, quickness and toughness to get open in key situations.

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Stats that matter

34-21 and 97.7. Those are Tannehill’s won-loss record and passer rating in home games throughout his career with the Dolphins and the Titans. He also has produced 109 total TDs in 55 regular-season home games, vs. 66 total TDs in 53 regular-season home games.  Tannehill also has gone 13-5 as the Titans’ starting QB.

Colts vs. Titans prediction

The Titans will win the battle of attrition by having the more reliable one back, Henry to help their quarterback, vs. the Colts’ true committee for Rivers. The Titans also have other more reliable playmakers around Tannehill to make some big plays in tough spots, led by Brown. A late Stephen Gostkowski field goal is the difference in a physical, run-heavy affair.

Titans 23, Colts 20

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